融合多维特征与SHAP分析的变压器偏磁状态评估
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1.重庆邮电大学复杂系统与仿生控制重庆重点实验室重庆400000;2.北京工业大学重庆研究院重庆401121; 3.国网宁夏电力有限公司银川供电公司银川750011;4.重庆红宇精密工业集团有限公司重庆401120

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TM41;TN911.7

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重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2024NSCQ-MSX1044)、重庆市教委科技研究项目(KJQN202200634)资助


Evaluation of transformer DC bias using multidimensional features and SHAP analysis
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1.Chongqing Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Bionic Control, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing 400000, China; 2.Chongqing Research Institute of Beijing University of Technology, Chongqing 401121, China; 3.Yinchuan Power Supply Company, State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd., Yinchuan 750011, China; 4.Chongqing Hongyu Precision Industry Group Co., Ltd., Chongqing 401120, China

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    摘要:

    针对变压器直流偏磁状态评估中,传统基于单一指标的诊断方法在复杂工况下泛化能力不足,以及常规集成机器学习模型决策过程不透明、难以被工程实践信任的“黑箱”问题,提出一种基于多维特征融合与沙普利加和解释(Shapley additive explanations,SHAP)可解释性分析的直流偏磁状态精确评估模型。首先,在分析不同偏磁程度下变压器振动响应机理的基础上,提取并构建了融合时域统计量、频域谐波分量及特定物理机理特征(如加权奇偶谐波能量比、频域分布能量熵)的14维特征体系。其次,利用基于SHAP重要性的递归特征消除(recursive feature elimination,RFE)策略对特征集进行自适应筛选,有效消除了冗余特征;在此基础上,采用极限梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting,XGBoost)算法构建评估模型,并通过贝叶斯优化算法对模型超参数进行自适应寻优,实现对偏磁等级的精准辨识。多测点实验验证表明,优化后的模型能够针对不同传感测点自适应筛选出最优的特征子集,在所有测点上均取得了超过96.2%的评估准确率。最后,引入SHAP框架从全局和局部层面对模型决策机制进行量化分析,结果表明模型的决策依据与振动传递规律及偏磁物理规律高度一致。该方法在保证高诊断精度的同时展现出优异的可解释性,为数据驱动模型在变压器状态评估领域的工程应用提供了透明可靠的解决方案。

    Abstract:

    To address the issues of insufficient generalization ability in traditional single-index diagnosis methods under complex operating conditions, and the opacity of the decision-making process in conventional machine learning models (the “black box” problem) for transformer DC bias condition assessment, this paper proposes an accurate assessment model based on multi-dimensional feature fusion and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) interpretability analysis. First, based on the analysis of the vibration response mechanism of transformers under different degrees of DC bias, a 14-dimensional feature system fusing time-domain statistics, frequency-domain harmonic components, and specific physical mechanism features (such as weighted odd-even harmonic energy ratio and spectral entropy) is extracted and constructed. Next, a recursive feature elimination (RFE) strategy based on SHAP importance is utilized to adaptively screen the feature set, effectively eliminating redundant features. On this basis, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm is adopted to build the assessment model, and Bayesian optimization is employed to adaptively tune the model hyperparameters, achieving precise identification of DC bias severity levels. Experimental verification based on multiple measurement points indicates that the optimized model can adaptively select the optimal feature subset for different sensor locations, achieving an assessment accuracy of over 96.2% across all tested points. Finally, the SHAP framework is introduced to quantitatively analyze the model’s decision-making mechanism from both global and local perspectives. The interpretability results demonstrate a high consistency between the model’s decision basis and the physical laws of vibration transmission and DC bias. This method demonstrates excellent interpretability while ensuring high diagnostic accuracy, providing a transparent and reliable solution for the engineering application of data-driven models in the field of transformer condition assessment.

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刘行谋,陈民逸,杨宁,肖遥.融合多维特征与SHAP分析的变压器偏磁状态评估[J].电子测量与仪器学报,2026,40(8):69-80

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-13
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