融合STL-OVMD与优化BiGRU-Attention网络的风速预测
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1.南京信息工程大学电子与信息工程学院南京210044;2.南京晓扬电子科技有限公司南京211500

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TN98;TP391

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Wind prediction integrating STL-OVMD and optimized BiGRU network with attention mechanism
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1.School of Electronics and Information Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2.Nanjing Xiaoyang Electronic Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Nanjing 211500, China

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    摘要:

    风的随机和非平稳特征对目前风速预测方法的精度产生了制约。为了提高预测的准确性,构建了一个混合深度学习预测模型,融合了季节趋势分解、优化变分模态分解、麻雀搜索算法、时间卷积网络、双向门控循环单元以及注意力机制。方法先利用季节趋势分解对原始风速数据做自适应分解,得到趋势项、季节项以及残差项,再利用优化变分模态分解算法对残差项进行分解,得到若干本征模态函数。其次,针对趋势分量与季节分量,采用双向门控循环单元捕捉长期依赖关系及周期性特征,通过前向与后向门控循环单元的双向信息融合输出全局隐藏状态;引入自注意力机制对各本征模态的局部细节特征进行动态加权,生成关键特征聚焦的上下文向量,抑制冗余信息干扰。接着,针对时间卷积网络与长短期记忆网络关键超参数对模型性能的显著影响,引入麻雀优化算法进行全局优化,解决目前搜索易陷入局部最优、计算效率低的问题。最后依靠整合趋势分量、季节分量与各本征模态的预测结果来输出风速预测值。在实际风电场以小时为间隔的风速数据集上与五种预测方法进行了对比验证实验。结果表明,预测精度与趋势捕捉能力显著优于其他模型,和基准模型相比,均方误差降低 33.5%,均方根误差降低18.5%,平均绝对误差降低16.9%,决定系数提升 3.6%,训练时间降低42.0%,参数量降低41.0%。提出的混合模型为非平稳风速序列的高精度预测提供了有效方案。

    Abstract:

    Wind speed sequence itself has randomness and non-stationary characteristics, which constrain the accuracy of traditional prediction methods. A hybrid prediction framework was constructed for this purpose, which integrates seasonal trend decomposition, optimized variational mode decomposition, sparrow search algorithm, bidirectional gated recurrent unit, and attention mechanism. This method first uses seasonal and trend decomposition (STL) to adaptively decompose the original wind speed data, obtaining trend terms, seasonal terms, and residual terms. Then, the optimized variational mode decomposition (OVMD) algorithm is used to perform secondary decomposition on the residual terms, obtaining several intrinsic mode functions, effectively reducing signal complexity and mode aliasing phenomena. Secondly, for the trend and seasonal components, a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) is used to capture long-term dependencies and periodic features, and the global hidden state is output through bidirectional information fusion of forward and backward GRUs; Introducing selfattention mechanism to dynamically weight the local detail features of each intrinsic mode function (IMF) component, generate context vectors focused on key features, and suppress redundant information interference. Next, in response to the significant impact of BiGRU key hyper parameters on model performance, the SSA algorithm is introduced for global optimization to solve the problems of traditional grid search being prone to local optima and low computational efficiency. Finally, the final wind speed prediction value is output by integrating the trend component, seasonal component, and the predicted results of each IMF component. Taking the short-term wind speed dataset of actual wind farms as the research object, the results were compared and verified with five benchmark models. The results showed that the prediction accuracy and trend capture ability were significantly better than other models. Compared with the basis benchmark model, the MSE decreased by 33.5%, RMSE decreased by 18.5%, MAE decreased by 16.9%, and R2 increased by 3.6%, training time decreased by 42.0%, and parameter number decreased by 41.0%, providing an effective solution for high-precision prediction of non-stationary wind speed sequences.

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陈晓,刘阳.融合STL-OVMD与优化BiGRU-Attention网络的风速预测[J].电子测量与仪器学报,2026,40(7):298-308

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