Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) is widely used in aerospace and other fields. However, assembly drilling is easy to cause stress concentration, resulting in local damage expansion and bearing capacity reduction. It is urgent to study the mechanism of local damage generation and expansion of carbon fiber composite plates and predict their failure. A multi-scale analysis method for tensile progressive damage of carbon fiber composites is proposed, and the whole process numerical simulation prediction of micro-macro mechanical properties and tensile damage of CFRP laminates are realized. Firstly, the representative volume element (RVE) is established, and the periodic boundary conditions are set to obtain the mechanical properties of the material. Then, the finite element model of CFRP laminates is established, and the progressive damage multi-scale prediction model is established by using the stress form Hashin damage criterion and the linear damage evolution based on fracture energy. The tensile simulation of laminates with holes was carried out. The established progressive damage model can accurately predict the load-displacement curve of laminates, and the error between the maximum load and the test result is only within 9.3%. Finally, the effects of different hole depths on the tensile ultimate load and damage behavior of perforated laminates were studied. The results show that the ultimate bearing capacity of laminates decreases significantly with the increase of hole depth. The damage starts from the matrix cracking of the 90°plies at the edge of the hole, and gradually expands to the 0 °plies in the hole area. As the load increases, the damage is further transmitted to the internally intact 0 °main bearing layer that has not been drilled, resulting in continuous degradation of the bearing capacity. The increase of the hole depth not only reduces the effective bearing area, but also changes the initial position and evolution path of fiber damage in the 0 °plies, weakens the inter-layer load redistribution ability and accelerates the structural failure.