融合SSAD-Z-score异常检测的LFLSTM水泥脱硝系统NOx预测模型
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1.合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院合肥230009;2.合肥水泥研究设计院有限公司合肥230051

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TP183;TN081

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LFLSTM NOx prediction model for cement denitrification system integrated with SSAD-Z-score anomaly detection
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1.School of Electrical and Automation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China; 2.Hefei Cement Research & Design Institute Corporation Ltd, Hefei 230051, China

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    摘要:

    为解决水泥脱硝系统氮氧化物(nitrogen oxides, NOx)浓度预测中异常数据干扰严重、时序建模困难的问题,提出了一种融合滑动窗口斜率异常检测-Z-score(sliding slope anomaly detection-Z-score, SSAD-Z-score)异常检测与多步时滞长短期记忆(lag features long short-term memory, LFLSTM)深度学习模型的复合预测方法。首先,基于NOx生成与选择性非催化还原(selective non-catalytic reduction, SNCR)反应机理,采用相关系数筛选出窑尾烟室NOx浓度和SNCR喷氨频率等核心输入变量。针对反吹等复杂异常,设计SSAD-Z-score算法,结合滑动窗口斜率变化与全局Z-score判据,实现对突发、趋势、局部扰动、反吹数据等多类型异常的自适应检测与修正。进一步在长短期记忆(long short-term memory, LSTM)模型中引入多步时滞特征(lag features, LF),充分利用历史时序信息,提升模型对NOx浓度动态变化的建模能力。实验结果表明,SSAD-Z-score方法在异常检测覆盖率(47.67%)、召回率(0.844)等指标上,均显著优于传统Z-score方法、孤立森林、局部异常因子(local outlier factor, LOF)和小波变换。同时,SSAD-Z-score在修正后标准差方面表现卓越,为所有对比方法中最低,且平均修正幅度达881。参数灵敏度分析显示,在滑动窗口大小10、斜率阈值0.15、Z-score阈值1.65的中等参数设置下,SSAD-Z-score在修正后标准差(35.65)和平均修正幅度(8.81)等方面取得最佳平衡。将修正后的数据输入LFLSTM模型进行NOx浓度预测,LFLSTM模型在平均单样本预测耗时方面仅为4.88 ms,远低于1 s的数据采集频率,决定系数(coefficient of determination,R2)为0.884 5,均方根误差(root mean squared error, RMSE)为2.026 5,平均绝对误差(mean absolute error, MAE)为1.798 5,预测性能均显著优于Transformer、Informer和门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit, GRU)等主流模型。最终,结合SSAD-Z-score修正的LFLSTM模型在整体系统性能上表现最佳,R2达到0.824 097,RMSE为4.305 981,MAE为3.297 620,均显著优于直接使用LFLSTM和Z-score-LFLSTM的预测模型。研究结果验证了所提方法在提升异常检测准确性和NOx浓度预测精度方面的有效性,为水泥脱硝系统智能控制提供了坚实的数据基础和方法支撑。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of severe outlier interference and temporal modeling difficulties in predicting NOx concentrations within cement denitrification systems, this paper proposes a composite prediction method integrating SSAD-Z-score anomaly detection with LFLSTM deep learning models. First, based on NOx generation and SNCR reaction mechanisms, core input variables-including kiln tail flue gas chamber NOx concentration and SNCR ammonia injection frequency—are selected using correlation coefficients. To handle complex anomalies like backwashing, the SSAD-Z-score algorithm is designed. It combines sliding window slope changes with global Z-score criteria to achieve adaptive detection and correction for multiple anomaly types, including sudden spikes, trends, local disturbances, and backwashing data. Furthermore, multi-step lag features are introduced into the LSTM model to fully leverage historical time-series information, enhancing the model’s ability to capture dynamic changes in NOx concentration. Experimental results demonstrate that the SSAD-Z-score method significantly outperforms traditional Z-score methods, Isolated Forest, LOF, and Wavelet Transform in metrics such as anomaly detection coverage (47.67%) and recall (0.844). Additionally, SSAD-Z-score exhibits exceptional performance in corrected standard deviation, achieving the lowest value among all comparison methods with an average correction magnitude of 8.81. Parameter sensitivity analysis indicates that under moderate parameter settings—sliding window size 10, slope threshold 0.15, and Z-score threshold 1.65-SSAD-Z-score achieves optimal balance in terms of corrected standard deviation (35.65) and average correction magnitude (8.81). Inputting the corrected data into the LFLSTM model for NOx concentration prediction yielded an average single-sample prediction time of just 4.88 milliseconds-significantly below the 1-second data acquisition frequency. The model achieved an R2 of 0.884 5, RMSE of 2.026 5, and MAE of 1.798 5, demonstrating markedly superior predictive performance compared to mainstream models like Transformer, Informer, and GRU. Ultimately, the LFLSTM model combined with SSAD-Z-score correction demonstrated the best overall system performance, achieving an R2 of 0.824 097, an RMSE of 4.305 981, and an MAE of 3.297 620. These metrics significantly outperformed prediction models using either LFLSTM alone or Z-score-LFLSTM. The research results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in enhancing anomaly detection accuracy and NOx concentration prediction precision, providing a robust data foundation and methodological support for intelligent control of cement denitrification systems.

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陈薇,何浩然,李鑫,邱亚,褚彪.融合SSAD-Z-score异常检测的LFLSTM水泥脱硝系统NOx预测模型[J].电子测量与仪器学报,2026,40(5):308-323

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