Based on the measured data of a subway open cut station, the main factors affecting the surface settlement around the foundation pit of the subway station are discussed, analyzed and predicted. Firstly, correlation analysis is used to obtain the correlation degree of various monitoring data and correlation parameters; Secondly, the nonlinear regression model is established by multi-element fitting regression analysis to analyze the law of surface settlement and predict the settlement; Finally, the measured data of open cut deep foundation pit of a subway station are used for experiment and result inspection. After inspection, it is found that the maximum error between the predicted value and the measured value is 0.273mm, and the predicted settlement trend is completely consistent with the measured settlement trend, indicating that the method is feasible.in order to reduce the observation frequency of surface settlement, reduce the workload, more scientifically understand the causes of surface settlement and enrich the prevention strategies.