基于动态频域特征解耦的中长期电力负荷预测
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四川轻化工大学计算机科学与工程学院 宜宾 644000

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TN911;TM715

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四川省科技计划重点研发项目(2023YFS0371)、企业信息化与物联网测控技术四川省高校重点实验室开放基金(2024WYJ03)、四川省智慧旅游研究基地项目(ZHYJ24-01)资助


Medium and long-term power load forecasting based on dynamic frequency domain feature decoupling
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School of Computer Science and Engineering, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering,Yibin 644000, China

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    摘要:

    中长期电力负荷预测是保障电力系统规划与运行稳定性、经济性的核心环节。一些研究通过傅里叶变换将输入数据转换到频域,以此来获得不同的信号分量,从而减轻噪声的干扰。但现有研究往往不加区分地处理全部的频域信号,使关键频域分量和无关频域分量混合,导致模型难以完全捕捉频域信号中蕴含的特征。因此,提出了一种融合频域分析与注意力机制的多变量长时序预测模型FTAformer。该模型集成了时域和频域信息,协同建模以提高模型对全局特征的捕捉能力。首先,利用快速傅里叶变换将输入序列转换为频域信号,采用层级滤波和隔离策略,隔离出关键频域分量并抑制噪声。接着通过多头注意力机制在时域上捕捉不同变量间的相关性,并利用层归一化和前馈网络模块建模序列的全局表示。实验结果表明,在两个公开电力负荷数据集上,该模型的预测性能显著高于其他基准模型。相较于现有最优模型iTransformer,所提方法的均方误差和平均绝对误差在多步预测场景下分别降低15.26%和8.76%,充分验证了频域分析与多头注意力机制协同建模在中长期电力负荷预测中的有效性与优越性。

    Abstract:

    Medium and long-term power load forecasting is a core link to ensure the stability and economy of power system planning and operation.Some studies convert the input data to the frequency domain through Fourier transform to obtain different signal components, thereby reducing the interference of noise. However, existing studies often indiscriminately handle all frequency-domain signals, causing the key frequency-domain components and irrelevant frequency-domain components to mix, which makes it difficult for the model to fully capture the features contained in the frequency-domain signals. Therefore, a multivariable long-term prediction model FTAformer that integrates frequency-domain analysis and attention mechanism is proposed. This model integrates time-domain and frequency-domain information and conducts collaborative modeling to enhance the model′s ability to capture global features. Firstly, the input sequence is transformed into a frequency-domain signal by using the fast Fourier transform. A hierarchical filtering and isolation strategy is adopted to isolate the key frequency-domain components and suppress the noise. Then, the correlations among different variables are captured in the time domain through the multi-head attention mechanism, and the global representation of the sequence is modeled by using layer normalization and the feedforward network module. The experimental results show that on two public power load datasets, the predictive performance of this model is significantly higher than that of other benchmark models. Compared with the existing optimal model iTransformer, the mean square error and mean absolute error of the proposed method are reduced by 15.26% and 8.76% respectively in the multi-step prediction scenario, fully verifying the effectiveness and superiority of the collaborative modeling of frequency domain analysis and multi-head attention mechanism in medium and long-term power load forecasting.

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罗鹏阳,朱文忠,王文.基于动态频域特征解耦的中长期电力负荷预测[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(6):156-166

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-13
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