融合频率增强通道注意力机制的VMD-TCN-NTSformer-FECAM风电功率预测研究
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内蒙古工业大学电力学院 呼和浩特 010080

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TN91;TP273

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内蒙古自然科学基金(2021LHMS06002)、新能源发电出力预测系统研究项目(2023150001000289)资助


Wind power forecasting based onVMD-TCN-NTSformer integrated with frequency-enhanced channel attention mechanism
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Institute of Electric Power,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010080,China

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    摘要:

    针对风电功率序列非平稳特性与多尺度动态演化规律。首先采用变分模态分解(VMD)对原始功率序列进行自适应频域分解,分离噪声干扰并提取多尺度动态子模态;其次,利用时间卷积网络(TCN)的膨胀卷积分层捕获局部时序特征,结合NTSformer的去平稳化注意力机制动态修正标准化偏差,提升趋势突变与周期波动建模能力;并引入频率增强通道注意力模块(FECAM),通过快速傅里叶变换提取频域特征,动态分配通道权重聚焦关键频率成分,最终构建VMD-FECAM-TCN-NTSformer预测模型。实验表明:该模型在15 min的单步预测和15 h的60步预测中较传统CNN模型决定系数提高13%、相较Transformer等模决定系数提高4%。因此,证明所提出的模型有较高预测精度和良好预测效果。

    Abstract:

    To address the non-stationary characteristics and multi-scale dynamic evolution of wind power time series, this study proposes a hybrid prediction model named VMD-FECAM-TCN-NTSformer. Firstly, Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) is employed to adaptively decompose the original power sequence in the frequency domain, effectively separating noise interference and extracting multi-scale dynamic intrinsic mode functions. Secondly, Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) are used to hierarchically capture local temporal features through dilated convolutions. Meanwhile, the NTSformer utilizes a de-stationary attention mechanism to dynamically correct normalization bias, thereby enhancing the modeling of abrupt trends and periodic fluctuations. Furthermore, a Frequency Enhanced Channel Attention Module (FECAM) is introduced to extract frequency-domain features via fast Fourier transform and dynamically assign channel weights to focus on key frequency components. Experimental results show that the proposed model improves the coefficient of determination R2 by more than 17% compared to traditional CNN models and by more than 5% compared to Transformer-based models, in both 15-minute single-step forecasting and 60-step (15 h) multi-step forecasting. These results demonstrate the model′s superior prediction accuracy and robust forecasting performance.

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杨青濠,张嘉英.融合频率增强通道注意力机制的VMD-TCN-NTSformer-FECAM风电功率预测研究[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(8):44-54

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-08
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